Do you believe in climate change?

A very interesting explanation/argument.

 

Thank you for this post.

 

It's an observed natural phenomenon. It is happening, whether you believe in it or not.

 

Natural, yes, but made worse by human activity

 

Yes.

 

Don't forget about all those volcanoes that have been erupting. And when Yellowstone blows, it just won't matter as we will all (mostly) be dead anyway.

 

Volcanoes don't work on a precise schedule, so it's hard to know exactly when a supervolcano will next erupt. However, we do know that the chances of it occurring in our lifetimes is extremely low.

- taken from a scientific journal

 

I believe that the Climate Change should be self evident. If you take a closed system where you have a specific chemistry and you start changing that chemistry, things will change. We currently have 50,000 years until the next ice age, so we have 50,000 years of heating ahead of us. Considering the fact that by 2070 the average temperature will be 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, (The current average is 57.0 degrees F) we may be struggling in the future.

 

its unquestionably happening, the data is there. is it anthropogenic? very probably. does the will, not just politically but individually in the aggregate exist for us to materially decrease the destructive effects exist, and would people be willing to tolerate the standard of living changes to do so? no

 

Climate change is going to happen whether humans existed or not. To think humans can stop it or even reverse it is pompous and egotistical.

 

It's pure, unadulterated, hubris.

 

The interesting thing about science is that it is correct regardless of who believes in it. And another thing is that it does not demand acceptance but invites challenge to everything that it claims. All that it asks is for one to be honest when examining the data and processes that generate the data. Remember if you prove a claim of science wrong, you win awards and the wrong science gets discarded like yesterdays rubbish. You can not have a better system than this.

 

Yes, climate change has been going through cycles and changes from the very moment when it was formed.

We are able to take samples from around the world that show these changes. They show a fairly consistent cycle up until humans began using fossil fuels.

Believe it or not, volcanic activity has been around for much longer than humans have been here. Their activity is already included in the evidence of these cycles.

That just helps to support the evidence that the acceleration of this global warming event is greatly influenced by human activity.

To think humans can stop it or even reverse it is pompous and egotistical.

Your comment is disturbing to me. To deny that human activity has exacerbated global warming, despite all of the overwhelming evidence and agreement by those who have dedicated their lives to study it, because it does not fit with your views seems to be a better fit for pompous and egotistical.

Whether or not humans can change the course to reduce/eliminate global warming, we have the obligation and duty to ourselves, our children, and the future generations to at least try.

We need you to stop rowing in a different direction, and help by either not row at all, or better yet, add your strength to help propel us forward faster by rowing in the same direction.

I hope you can see how important you are in shaping our future and decide to join in.

 

What was the world like before the Ice Age? What was the average temperature of the earth then? According to the fossil and geological record it was much warmer than now. For how long did dinosaurs walk the earth before the Ice Age? You could say that the Ice Age was global climate change. Did the Ice Age last longer the the Age of Dinosaurs? Who was/is to blame for the Ice Age? Who was/is to blame for the end of the Ice Age? We have been in a state of global warming since the end of the Ice Age. Earth is just reverting back to it's pre-Ice Age state. There are other factors to consider. The earth's "wobble" has increased. Also the earth is spinning faster and we have not adjusted our clocks to account for that. Earth's core has stopped spinning and is now in the process of starting to spin in the opposite direction. This happens about every 70 years give or take. Still don't know the exact implications regarding the surface of the earth. I also read that the orbit of the earth has changed slightly and has moved towards the Sun along with the observation that the Sun has increased in diameter slightly as it has been using up it's supply of fuel. Eventually it will become a red giant and the Earth will be engulfed. But not for a couple of years (Smiley emoji). So, volcanoes alone are not having much of an impact, but EVERYTHING together does have an effect. By the way, coal and oil are just forms of stored solar energy from the past.

 

Ice Core drillings have shown that near the poles was tropical like shortly before the Ice Age. Ferns and Palms were in abundance up in around the 65 degree latitude.

 

I have read that too.

 

How can some people continually promote verifiably wrong information and not begin to question the qualifications of their sources?

For example, you make the claim that every single climate model, used by the climate activists has failed. That is just complete BS.

I really don't think you understand how something like climate modeling works.

Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun. This is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can’t tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day – that’s weather forecasting. Climate trends are weather, averaged out over time - usually 30 years. Trends are important because they eliminate - or "smooth out" - single events that may be extreme, but quite rare.

Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future.

So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model. All other known forcings are adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional, as yet unknown forcings.

Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also been proved to make accurate predictions. For example, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully predicted the climatic response after the eruption. Models also correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

Climate models have already predicted many of the phenomena for which we now have empirical evidence. Climate models form a reliable guide to potential climate change.

Source: https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm


How about another source?
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2...mount of,principles of earth system processes.


How Accurate are Climate Models?
Since the world can’t afford to wait decades to measure the accuracy of climate model predictions, scientists test a model’s accuracy using past events. If the model accurately predicts past events that we know happened, then it should be pretty good at predicting the future, too. And the more we learn about past and present conditions, the more accurate these models become.
Climate models are complex because of the all the elements that are in flux within Earth’s systems. If our atmosphere was like the moon’s, climate modeling would be fairly easy because the moon barely has an atmosphere. On Earth, climate scientists must account for temperature fluctuations, wind patterns, ocean currents, land surface characteristics and much more. Because of this, the models always consider some level of uncertainty – but models measuring smaller areas with higher resolutions produce more accurate models. Despite a small amount of uncertainty, scientists find climate models of the 21st century to be pretty accurate because they are based on well-founded physical principles of earth system processes. This basis solidifies the confidence of the scientific community that human emissions are changing the climate, which will impact the entire planet.
Why Are Climate Models Important?
Understanding past, present and future climate helps us to understand how Earth’s systems naturally function. This information, combined with climate models, allows us to determine how both natural and manmade influences have and will impact changes in our climate. These predictions and results can also suggest how to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, and they help decision-makers to prioritize environmental issues based on scientific evidence.

Numerous models have shown that the climate is changing. Increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are resulting in positive feedbacks in our climate systems. These positive feedbacks can result in not so positive changes in earth systems, like melting glacial ice, rising ocean temperatures, increasing odds of severe flooding and drought, and climbing surface temperatures

 

It's because we lived through all of their predictions that ended up not coming true.